National tracker: Modi-powered NDA

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National tracker: Modi-powered NDA may get 234-246 seats, UPA 111-123
CNN-IBN, The Week & CSDS | Apr 04, 2014
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is almost certain to form the next government according to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti-The Week national election tracker. The NDA is projected to get 234-246 Lok Sabha seats in the elections while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is likely to bag just 111-123 according to the projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar. The survey indicates that BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is propelling the NDA to power at the Centre.
When compared to 2009 Lok Sabha results, the NDA almost doubling its seats and the UPA is losing half of its seats. The worse thing is Congress may get less than 100 Lok Sabha seats for the first time in its history. According to election tracker the Congress may get 94-106 Lok Sabha seats on its own.
The BJP is likely to cross 200 seats mark for the first time in its history by bagging 206-218 Lok Sabha seats on its own. The lowest count for the Congress was 114 seats in 1999 and the highest for the BJP is 182 seats in 1998 and 1999 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
According to election tracker the BJP is making huge gains in the Hindi belt states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jharkhand and its Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat. The BJP is ahead of the AAP in Delhi which has 7 Lok Sabha seats.
It is in a close fight with the Congress in Karnataka and slightly ahead in Maharashtra. The BJP is not making any gains in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and other Northeastern states.
It may get a few seats in Telangana, which will be India's 29th state from June 2, 2014.
Congress
The ruling Congress is staring at a huge defeat in most of the states. Some of them have been its strongholds for a long time. It is doing well in only two states - Karnataka and Kerala, where it is in power.
The Congress is likely to be decimated in Andhra Pradesh, which delivered the maximum number of seats for the party in both 2004 and 2009. Telangana's creation and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's revolt seems to have ended the Congress free run in AP.
Even in Telangana with 17 seats, the Congress is not doing well. Pro-Telangana party the TRS is likely to do well here. The Congress is likely to be pushed to third place in Odisha. In Maharashtra, it is doing slightly better.
Mamata may emerge stronger
The Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee may emerge stronger after the Lok Sabha elections by winning almost 30 seats from her state. The TMC is projected to win 23-29 seats making it the third largest party in the Lok Sabha after BJP and Congress.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK is expected to win 15-21 seats. The Left Front may suffer yet another debacle by bagging just 15-20 seats. The TDP and the YSRCP are expected to win 11-19 and 9-15 Lok Sabha seats respectively.
Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik's BJD is likely to get 10-16 seats, SP 11-17, DMK 10-16, BSP 10-16, TRS 4-8 and AAP 4-8 respectively.
Non-NDA and non-UPA parties are likely to get 170-180 Lok Sabha seats. But, most of these parties are fighting with each other in their respective states and so they may possibly not join hands.
How to form a government?
The BJP-led NDA may fall short of 30-40 seats for a simple majority figure of 272 Lok Sabha seats. However, it can take the help of YSR Congress Party, TRS, DMK or AIADMK, BSP and TDP to reach the halfway mark. The TMC and BJD have made it clear that they will not back the NDA. But, they can change their mind once the results are out.

Lokniti, CSDS-IBN Pre Poll Survey 2014

National Political Pulse

Seat projections March 2014

	Projected seats March 2014
NDA	234-246
UPA	111-123
TMC	23-29
ADMK	15-21
Left Front	14-20
TDP	13-19
SP	11-17
DMK+	10-16
BJD	10-16
BSP	10-16
YRSC	9-15
TRS	4-8
AAP	4-8
For BJP and Congress
BJP	206-218
Congress	94-106

Note: Seat projections by Prof. Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai

Previous seat projections Feb 2014

		Projected seats Feb 2014
BJP+	BJP+Shiv sena+Akali Dal+LJP	212-232
INC+	INC+NCP+Kerala Allies+JMM+NC+RJD	119-139
TMC		20-28
Left Front		1-23
ADMK		14-20
YRSC		11-17
SP		11-17
BJD		10-16
TDP		10-16
DMK		10-16
BSP		8-14
TRS		4-8
JDS		4-8
JDU		1-5
AAP		1-5
For BJP and Congress
BJP		193 -213
Congress		94-110

Note: Seat projections by Prof. Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai

Table 1: Vote share estimate for political parties if Lok Sabha elections are held now (March 18-25)

(2009 actual figures and Jan and Feb 2014 estimated figures for INC allies & BJP allies are based on current INC allies & BJP allies)

	Actual 2009	Jan 2014 Vote estimate	Mar 2014 Vote estimate
Cong	28.6	27	25
Cong allies	4.0	2	3
BJP	18.8	34	35
BJP allies	4.8	3	3
BSP	6.2	3	4
Left	7.6	4	4
SP	3.4	3	4
AAP	-	4	3
Others	26.6	20	19

Note: All figures are in per cent. Estimates based on Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National surveys. Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under-reporting for independents and very small parties and over-reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided voters who did not disclose their vote preference have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share for 2014. The survey was conducted in 18 States in January 2014 and 21 states in March 2014.

Cong allies in 2014 are NCP, IUML, KEC (M), RLD, JMM, JKNC, PPP, Mahan Dal and RSP (in Kerala).

BJP allies in 2014 are Shiv Sena, RPI (A), Swabiman Paksha, SAD, HJC, LJP, Apna Dal, DMDK, MDMK, PMK, IJK, and KMDK.

The current Cong allies and BJP allies of March 2014 have been used for calculating the 2009 vote shares as well. There were a different set of Cong and BJP allies in 2009, but in this table the figures for Cong allies and BJP allies in 2009 represent the sum of vote percentages received by the Cong’s and BJP’s current allies back then.

Table 1a:  Vote share estimate for UPA, NDA and Others if Lok Sabha elections are held now (March 18-25)

(Past figures for UPA and NDA based on current UPA, NDA composition)

Alliances	2009 Actual	Jan  2014 Estimate	Mar 2014 Estimate
UPA	32.6	29	28
NDA	23.6	37	38
Others	43.8	34	34

Note: All figures are in per cent. Estimates based on Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National surveys. Weighted Data.

Table 2: The situation could change as in many states quite a few respondents were undecided and did not reveal their vote choice

States	Undecided voters between March 18-25 (%)
Jammu and Kashmir	46
Uttarakhand	25
Chhattisgarh	24
Punjab	23
Haryana	20
Maharashtra	19
Himachal Pradesh	18
Kerala	16
Jharkhand	15
Tamil Nadu	14
West Bengal	13
Assam	12
Delhi	12
Madhya Pradesh	9
Uttar Pradesh	8
Andhra Pradesh	8
Bihar	4
Gujarat	4
Karnataka	3
Odisha	2
Rajasthan	2

Undecided voters who did not disclose their vote preference have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share for 2014

Table 3: Cong declines further in urban areas giving BJP a bigger lead

Locality	Cong		BJP
	Jan 2014	Mar 2014	Jan 2014	Mar 2014
Rural	26	24	25	35
Urban	30	26	33	36

All figures are in per cent and rounded off; the rest voted for other parties in the surveys; Weighted Data.

Table 3a: BJP leads among both Men and Women but gets much more support from the former than the latter

Locality	Cong		BJP
	Jan 2014	Mar 2014	Jan 2014	Mar 2014
Men	26	24	36	37
Women	28	26	31	32

All figures are in per cent and rounded off; the rest voted for other parties in the surveys; Weighted Data.

Table 3b: BJP continues to be ahead of Congress across all economic classes

Class	Cong		BJP
	Jan 2014	Mar 2014	Jan 2014	Mar 2014
Upper Class	26	23	37	42
Middle Class	29	25	35	37
Lower Class	26	26	34	35
Poor	26	26	32	30

All figures are in per cent and rounded off; the rest voted for other parties in the surveys; Weighted Data.

Table 3c: BJP leads Cong across all age groups; party’s support highest among the youngest voters and declines as age of voter increases; Cong and BJP neck and neck only among the elderly

Age group	Cong		BJP
	Jan 2014	Mar 2014	Jan 2014	Mar 2014
18-25 years	23	24	38	39
26-35 years	27	24	35	37
36-45 years	26	24	35	35
46-55 years	28	26	32	35
56 years +	31	29	29	30

All figures are in per cent and rounded off; the rest voted for other parties in the surveys; Weighted Data.

Methodology of Lokniti-IBN National Pre Poll Survey

The findings presented here are based on a Pre Poll survey conducted in 21 States of India by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi between 18th March and 25th March, 2014. The data for the survey was collected through face to face interviews amongst 20,957 voters spread across 1340 locations of 301 randomly selected Parliamentary constituencies in 21 States.  In each state, the Parliamentary constituencies and assembly segment/segments within a selected Parliamentary Constituency were randomly selected using the Probability Proportionate to Size sampling method. In each Assembly segment four polling stations were selected using the systematic random sampling technique. A total of 26,800 voters randomly selected from the most updated electoral rolls were approached for the interview, of which 20,957 voters could be successfully interviewed (see Table 1).

Table 1: Distribution of the Sample

States	Number of PCs surveyed	Number of polling stations surveyed	Achieved sample size
Andhra Pradesh	23	96	1308
Assam	11	52	798
Bihar	23	96	1557
Chhattisgarh	9	40	529
Delhi	7	60	891
Gujarat	12	56	917
Haryana	10	44	702
Himachal Pradesh	4	16	299
Jammu and Kashmir	5	20	321
Jharkhand	11	52	1094
Karnataka	14	60	825
Kerala	13	56	607
Madhya Pradesh	13	56	1121
Maharashtra	28	116	1662
Odisha	14	60	796
Punjab	9	44	816
Rajasthan	14	56	837
Tamil Nadu	21	84	1460
Uttar Pradesh	38	168	2633
Uttarakhand	5	20	344
West Bengal	17	88	1440
TOTAL	301	1340	20957

The social profile of the achieved sample in each state when compared with actual Census figures by and large reflects the representative nature of the sample. Wherever it was necessary we weighted the state data file by Census 2011 figures (see Table 2).

Table 2: Pre Poll Survey - Profile of the achieved sample in 21 states

States	Women		Muslim*		Urban		SC		ST
	Census	Survey	Census	Survey	Census	Survey	Census	Survey	Census	Survey
Andhra Pradesh	49.8	49.3	9.2	5.9	33.3	27.4	16.4	25.3	7.0	6.2
Assam	48.9	50.3	30.9	39.6	15.3	14.3	7.1	5.1	12.4	18.5
Bihar	47.8	40.8	16.5	10.9	11.2	8.0	15.9	21.1	1.3	2.7
Chhattisgarh	49.7	42.9	2.0	2.8	23.2	14.2	12.8	18.5	30.6	27.4
Delhi	46.4	46.4	11.7	18.3	-	-	16.8	11.7	-	-
Gujarat	47.8	45.8	9.1	13.7	44.6	28.0	6.7	5.5	14.7	18.1
Haryana	46.7	43.2	5.8	2.7	34.8	15.8	20.1	22.6	-	-
Himachal	49.2	52.5	1.9	0.7	10.0	-	25.2	28.4	5.7	1.0
J&K	47.0	50.2	59.9	72.0	27.3	26.7	7.4	11.8	11.9	1.9
Jharkhand	48.6	47.7	13.8	17.7	24.0	25.1	12.0	14.8	26.2	19.6
Karnataka	49.3	48.2	12.2	12.5	40.5	41.5	17.1	19.0	6.9	5.9
Kerala	52.0	55.0	24.6	23.9	47.1	18.3	9.1	12.4	1.4	1.2
Madhya Pradesh	48.2	43.5	6.4	2.9	26.5	24.3	15.6	21.0	21.1	22.0
Maharashtra	48.1	41.9	10.6	4.6	45.9	32.2	11.8	14.9	9.3	9.9
Odisha	49.4	46.0	2.1	0.5	16.0	12.3	17.1	22.4	22.8	14.3
Punjab	47.2	47.7	1.6	0.6	37.4	32.1	31.9	30.1	-	-
Rajasthan	48.1	44.1	8.4	10.9	24.8	24.1	17.8	14.8	13.4	14.8
Tamil Nadu	49.9	49.5	5.6	7.7	48.5	38.9	20.0	19.0	1.1	1.4
Uttar Pradesh	47.7	41.6	18.5	14.6	22.2	14.9	20.6	17.9	0.5	2.4
Uttarakhand	49.1	46.2	11.9	4.9	30.2	31.4	18.8	29.4	2.9	0.6
West Bengal	48.7	51.0	25.2	27.0	31.8	23.4	23.5	30.7	5.8	4.1

Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001

The interview was conducted face to face at the place of residence of the respondent using a standard structured questionnaire in the language spoken and understood by the respondent. The voting questions were asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box to ensure secrecy. The estimate of vote shares for different political parties are based on a careful analysis of the respondents’ stated preference of voting for a party as marked on the ballot paper, which carried the elections symbols of all the major political parties in the State. Since all surveys suffer from the problem of over-estimation of votes for big parties and underestimation for smaller parties, the estimate of vote shares was made after carefully adjusting the vote share of smaller parties and independents as base. A comparison of the proportion of important social categories in the total survey sample of a State with their actual proportion in the population of that State was also made while deciding the state-wise estimate of vote shares. Undecided voters who did not disclose their vote preference have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share.

The total of 20957 completed interviews is not uniformly spread in all the 21 states where the survey was conducted. The sample in big states like Uttar Pradesh (2633), Maharashtra (1662), Andhra Pradesh (1308), West Bengal (1440), Bihar (1557), Madhya Pradesh (1121) is bigger compared to some smaller states like Himachal Pradesh (299), Uttarakhand (344), Haryana (702) Chhattisgarh (529) and  Assam (798). It must be noted however that in Kerala the achieved sample size of 607 was less than expected. While reading the table of vote shares, it may be appropriate to remind the reader that there is greater confidence on the vote share estimates for parties in States where the sample is bigger, compared to states where the sample is small.

The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. The team included Anuradha Singh, Ashish Ranjan, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Jyoti Mishra, Nitin Mehta, Rahul Verma, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. Suhas Palshikar and Sandeep Shastri provided their suggestions during the entire exercise. The survey was directed at the national level by Sanjay Kumar.

The survey was coordinated by scholars from the Lokniti Network: E Venkatesu (Andhra Pradesh), Subhrajeet Konwar (Assam), Rakesh Ranjan (Bihar), Anupama Saxena and Shamshad Ansari (Chhattisgarh), Biswajeet Mohanty (Delhi), Bhanu Parmar and Mahashweta Jani (Gujarat), Kushal Pal (Haryana) , Ramesh K Chauhan (Himachal Pradesh), Ellora Puri & Aijaz Ashraf Wani (Jammu and Kashmir), Harishwar Dayal (Jharkhand), Veena Devi and Reetika Syal (Karnataka), Sajad Ibrahim (Kerala), Yatindra Singh Sisodia (Madhya Pradesh), Nitin Birmal (Maharashtra), Prabhat Mohanty (Odisha), Jagroop Singh Sekhon (Punjab), Sanjay Lodha and Nidhi Seth (Rajasthan), Ramajayam (Tamil Nadu), A.K. Verma, Asmer Beg, and Sudhir Kumar (Uttar Pradesh), Annpurna Nautiyal (Uttarakhand) and Suprio Basu (West Bengal)